30 Haziran 2011 Perşembe

Overcapacity Leads to PV Solar Price Reduction

After years of fast expansion, the industry began to see a decline in both shipments and price during the first half of 2011.
During 2010, China’s PV industry grew at a breakneck pace based on strong demand. Production of PV cells reached 13 GW, surging 173 percent over 2009, according to statistics from PhotonInternational. However, in 2011 several main end markets including Germany, Spain and Italy reduced their subsidies to the sector, which, in turn, led to a decrease in market demand followed by a drop in price. 
Prices for PV modules held steady at EUR1.50-2.00 (US$2.00-2.70) per watt last year, but then plunged in the beginning of 2011. The average price has now fallen below US$0.90 per watt, and downstream manufacturers are still pushing for further decreases, according to a survey by Energy Trend. 
Industry players are expected to see fiercer competition this year, which will mainly be demonstrated by price cutting, said industry insiders. The trough in the pricing has given small- and mid-sized PV firms a fatal blow, and the latest data shows gross margins for those firms have recently dropped to less than 10 percent from nearly 20 percent. The reshuffle of the players in China’s PV sector is seen as inevitable.

5 Haziran 2011 Pazar

World PV Solar Outlook June 2011

World PV Solar Outlook
05 June 2011
At the end of 2010, the global photovoltaic market hit a cumulative installed capacity of 40 GW, of which 16.6 GW was added during 2010. A year of unprecedented growth saw new capacity more than double from 7.2 GW in 2009. Worldwide, solar PV already produces some 50 Billion kWh each year. By 2015, though, capacity could climb to range from 131 GW to 196 GW. These figures come from the European Photovoltaic Industry Association (EPIA), which recently presented its Global Market Outlook for Photovoltaics until 2015. The trade group linked last year's surge to soaring German and Italian markets. Germany continued to lead the PV market worldwide, with 7.4 GW installed over the year, while Italy added a substantial 2.3 GW. Other countries with significant growth included the Czech Republic, which saw a 1.5 GW expansion in 2010, a rise unlikely to be sustained in 2011. Japan gained 990 MW, the United States 900 MW, and France 700 MW. Spain regained some ground by installing 370 MW after two years of strongly adverse conditions. Belgium connected more than 420 MW of PV.

Europe Leads the Way
In terms of global installed capacity, the EU leads with almost 30 GW installed as of 2010 — about 75% of global PV capacity, up from 70% in 2009. Japan (3.6 GW) and the USA (2.5 GW) are some way behind, while China has already entered the Top 10 of the world's PV markets and should reach its first GW this year. Across Europe, installations last year totalled 13.3 GW, outstripping 9.3 GW for wind to lead all renewable generation technologies in added capacity. In its expansion PV was second only to gas power plants, for which new capacity reached between 15.7 GW and 28 GW, depending on the source. EPIA, in fact, links global investment in gas — rather than nuclear and coal — with the growth in variable renewable generation sources such as PV and wind. At its current pace of expansion, Europe could increase the percentage of its electricity generated from PV by one percentage point every two years, says EPIA. The continent's annual increase in capacity has grown from less than 1 GW in 2003 to over 13 GW last year. Despite difficult financial and economic circumstances, 2010 was expected to show a major acceleration. But a 130% Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) exceeded all expectations and almost matched the 145% from 2007 to 2008.

Forecasts to 2015
While growth in the EU in coming years could be low, or even negative, non-EU countries should more than pick up the slack from 2011 and 2012 onwards, ensuring continuous global PV market growth until 2015 and beyond. In 2011, though, a market stagnation or even a small dip is not impossible. The speed of political decisions over 2010 and the start of 2011 acts as a reminder that PV will be incentive driven until competitiveness is reached in all of a country's market segments. Yet EPIA believes market developments could raise global installed capacity in 2015 to between 131 GW and 196 GW, with 100 GW hit as soon as 2013. A rapid global rebalancing could also be imminent, with the EU accounting for less than 40% of the world market by 2015 in the EPIA's 'Moderate' scenario and about 45% in its 'Policy-Driven' scenario. While 2010 showed no sign of such a change, the rest of the world, and especially Asia, could prove a fertile market, even if the EU is likely to stay ahead in installed capacity over the next decade. Production, which was once balanced between the EU and the rest of the world, is already growing faster in Asia, and particularly China. Modules are still mainly shipped to the EU, reflecting the smaller size of Asia's market, although about half of the value of a PV system is currently created further downstream and closer to the consumers. Anticipated growth in markets outside the EU would tend to reduce the mismatch between supply and demand. A current overcapacity should also further reduce module prices over coming years and thereby trigger more demand. The disparity in installations between the EU and the rest of the world should decrease over the next five years. On the supply side, a rise in the relative share of transport in the cost of PV modules as module prices decrease should address the imbalance and encourage production closer to the end market. A continuing slide in PV module prices will also further erode the share of modules in the overall value of a PV system.
Note: This article is a shorted version of an original written by David Appleyard, Chief Editor, Renewable Energy World International 27 May 2011